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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Slovakia v Moldova: numbers & prediction

UEFA Nations League · Europe

Slovakia

DWWL
2–0
FT

Moldova

DDLL
Slovakia 71%Draw 20%Moldova 9% Expected goals 2.33 – 0.78
62%
Betarazi pick

Under 3.5 goals

Good pick · fair odds 1.62 · bookmaker 1.53 · Won ✓

5/10Rating
1.53Odds
GG

Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.50 – our chance 51% vs 40% implied by the price (edge +29%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Picks by market

ResultSlovakia to win ✓71% · @1.17
Double chanceSlovakia or draw ✓91% · @1.01
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @2.50
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.60

Slovakia vs Moldova: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Saturday 26 September the UEFA Nations League brings Slovakia against Moldova. Kick-off: 19:45 WAT. In the table, Slovakia are 1st on 10 points after 4 matches; Moldova are 3rd with 4.

Current form

Slovakia, last 4: DWWL Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Montenegro, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. Scoring is no problem – 2.3 a game lately.

Moldova, last 4: DDLL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Armenia, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.

Momentum favours Slovakia, collecting 1.8 points per game to 0.5 for Moldova.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Slovakia 2.3 xG, Moldova 0.8 xG – a total near 3.1. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 60% and GG at 51%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Slovakia 71%, draw 20%, Moldova 9%.
  • GG/NG: GG (51%) at 2.50.
  • Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.50 – the bookmaker implies 40%, our ratings say 51%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (62%, odds 1.53). Most likely score in line with that pick: Slovakia 2–0 Moldova. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Slovakia71%fair 1.41 · @1.17
Draw20%fair 5.05 · @7.00
Moldova9%fair 10.62 · @15.00
3.10Expected goals
2.33Slovakia xG
0.78Moldova xG
51%Both score
60%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

2–012%
1–010%
2–19%
3–09%
1–18%
3–17%

From our goals model: Slovakia 2.3 – 0.8 Moldova expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultSlovakia to win ✓71%1.411.17
Double chanceSlovakia or draw ✓91%1.101.01
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗51%1.952.50 ▲
Draw no betSlovakia (draw no bet) ✓88%1.13–
Asian handicapSlovakia -1 (Asian handicap) ✓64%1.57–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80%1.241.17
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✗60%1.671.57
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓62%1.621.53
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓78%1.281.22
First team to scoreSlovakia to score first ✓72%1.40–
Half-time resultSlovakia ahead at half-time ✓52%1.91–
Half-time / full-timeHT Slovakia / FT Slovakia ✓48%2.07–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9%10.60–

Recent results

Slovakia – last 4

DWWL
5 Junvs Montenegro2–2D
1 Junvs Malta2–1W
31 Marvs Romania2–0W
26 Marvs Kosovo3–4L
2.3Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
75%Both scored
75%Over 2.5

Moldova – last 4

DDLL
9 Jun@ Armenia1–1D
5 Junvs Bulgaria2–2D
30 Mar@ Cyprus2–3L
26 Marvs Lithuania0–2L
1.3Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
75%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Slovakia and Moldova.

Slovakia vs Moldova head-to-head page →

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Slovakia4310+710
2Faroe Islands404004
3Moldova4112-54
4Kazakhstan4022-22

More UEFA Nations League predictions

League hub
FT Slovenia0 Scotland0 134%2.45X23%3.10242%2.90 1.1–1.3xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 78%@1.22 ✓
FT San Marino0 Finland7 114%26.00X13%10.00273%1.07 0.9–2.4xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 62%@1.50 ✓
FT Faroe Islands1 Kazakhstan1 128%2.25X53%3.10219%3.40 1.2–1.0xG 1XFaroe Islands or draw 81%@1.30 ✓
FT Iceland1 Estonia1 168%1.25X16%5.75216%11.00 2.2–0.9xG 1Iceland to win 68%@1.25 ✗
FT Bulgaria1 Luxembourg2 148%2.30X25%3.00228%3.40 1.3–0.9xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 80%@1.20 ✓
FT England2 Spain3 132%3.10X22%3.40247%2.20 1.3–1.6xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 77%@1.22 ✓
FT Czechia1 Croatia2 129%3.25X21%3.50249%2.15 1.2–1.6xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 77%@1.22 ✓
FT Albania2 Belarus0 163%1.50X24%4.00213%7.00 1.7–0.7xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 77%@1.22 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Slovakia vs Moldova?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.

Who will win Slovakia vs Moldova?

On our numbers Slovakia have a 71% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Moldova 9%.

How many goals will there be in Slovakia vs Moldova?

We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Slovakia vs Moldova?

Our predicted score is Slovakia 2–0 Moldova, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.

When is Slovakia vs Moldova?

Slovakia vs Moldova (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.