Iceland v Estonia Prediction & Expected Goals (26 Sep) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultIceland to win ✗68% · @1.25

Double chanceEither team to win ✗84% · fair 1.18

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @2.10

GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · @1.17

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.18

Iceland vs Estonia: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Estonia travel to face Iceland on Saturday 26 September in the UEFA Nations League, with Laugardalsvöllur the venue – the ball rolls at 17:00 WAT. In the table, Iceland are 1st on 8 points after 4 matches; Estonia are 2nd with 6. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.

Current form

Iceland, last 4: LLDL Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Argentina, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Iceland 2.2 xG, Estonia 0.9 xG – a total near 3.1. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 59% and GG at 56%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Iceland 68%, draw 16%, Estonia 16%.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 2.10.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.10 – the bookmaker implies 48%, our ratings say 56%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Iceland to win (68%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Iceland 2–0 Estonia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Iceland68%fair 1.46 · @1.25

Draw16%fair 6.41 · @5.75

Estonia16%fair 6.27 · @11.00

3.06Expected goals

2.17Iceland xG

0.89Estonia xG

56%Both score

59%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

2–011%

1–010%

2–110%

1–19%

3–08%

3–17%

From our goals model: Iceland 2.2 – 0.9 Estonia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Iceland to win ✗	68%	1.46	1.25
Double chance	Either team to win ✗	84%	1.18	–
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	56%	1.77	2.10 ▲
Draw no bet	Iceland (draw no bet)	81%	1.23	–
Asian handicap	Iceland -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✗	67%	1.50	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	80%	1.25	1.17
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✗	59%	1.70	1.60
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	63%	1.59	1.50
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	79%	1.26	1.20
First team to score	Iceland to score first ✓	68%	1.48	–
Half-time result	Iceland ahead at half-time ✓	49%	2.06	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Iceland / FT Iceland ✗	44%	2.30	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	10%	10.18	–

Iceland – last 4

LLDL

10 Jun	@ Argentina	0–3	L
31 May	@ Japan	0–1	L
31 Mar	@ Haiti	1–1	D
26 Feb	@ Mexico	0–4	L

0.3Scored / game

2.3Conceded / game

25%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

Estonia – last 2

6 Jun	vs Faroe Islands	1–0	W
30 Mar	@ Rwanda	0–2	L

0.5Scored / game

1.0Conceded / game

0%Both scored

0%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Iceland	4	2	2	0	+6	8
2	Estonia	4	1	3	0	+1	6
3	Bulgaria	4	1	1	2	-2	4
4	Luxembourg	4	1	0	3	-5	3

Team

Pts

-2

-5

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Iceland vs Estonia?

Our pick is Iceland to win with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.

Who will win Iceland vs Estonia?

On our numbers Iceland have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Estonia 16%.

How many goals will there be in Iceland vs Estonia?

We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Iceland vs Estonia?

Our predicted score is Iceland 2–0 Estonia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.

When is Iceland vs Estonia?

Iceland vs Estonia (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Laugardalsvöllur.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Iceland v Estonia: numbers & prediction