Slovenia v Scotland Prediction & Expected Goals (26 Sep) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultScotland to win ✗42% · @2.90

Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.36

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @1.83

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.22

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.10

Slovenia vs Scotland: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Saturday 26 September the UEFA Nations League brings Slovenia against Scotland at Stožice Stadium. Kick-off: 14:00 WAT. In the table, Slovenia are 2nd on 7 points after 4 matches; Scotland are 3rd with 4. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.

Current form

Slovenia, last 3: LDW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Croatia, away. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.

Scotland, last 5: LLWWW Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Brazil, at home. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Slovenia 1.1 xG, Scotland 1.3 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 42%, GG 52%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Slovenia 34%, draw 23%, Scotland 42%.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.83.
Price worth noting: Scotland to win @2.90 – the bookmaker implies 34%, our ratings say 42%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (78%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Slovenia 1–1 Scotland. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Slovenia34%fair 2.93 · @2.45

Draw23%fair 4.27 · @3.10

Scotland42%fair 2.35 · @2.90

2.36Expected goals

1.09Slovenia xG

1.26Scotland xG

52%Both score

42%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–113%

0–112%

1–010%

0–09%

1–28%

0–28%

From our goals model: Slovenia 1.1 – 1.3 Scotland expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Scotland to win ✗	42%	2.35	2.90 ▲
Double chance	Either team to win ✗	77%	1.31	1.36
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✗	52%	1.93	1.83
Draw no bet	Scotland (draw no bet)	55%	1.80	–
Asian handicap	Slovenia +1 (Asian handicap) ✓	77%	1.30	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✗	67%	1.49	1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✓	58%	1.72	1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	78%	1.29	1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	91%	1.10	1.06
First team to score	Scotland to score first ✗	49%	2.06	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✓	46%	2.19	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Scotland / FT Scotland ✗	23%	4.32	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–2 ✗	8%	12.10	–

Slovenia – last 3

LDW

7 Jun	@ Croatia	1–2	L
4 Jun	vs Cyprus	1–1	D
31 Mar	@ Montenegro	3–2	W

1.7Scored / game

1.7Conceded / game

100%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

Scotland – last 6

LLWWWL

24 Jun	vs Brazil	0–3	L
19 Jun	vs Morocco	0–1	L
14 Jun	@ Haiti	1–0	W
6 Jun	@ Bolivia	4–0	W
30 May	vs Curaçao	4–1	W
31 Mar	vs Ivory Coast	0–1	L

1.5Scored / game

1.0Conceded / game

17%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Switzerland	4	4	0	0	+10	12
2	Slovenia	4	2	1	1	+2	7
3	Scotland	4	1	1	2	-2	4
4	FYR Macedonia	4	0	0	4	-10	0

Team

Pts

+10

-2

-10

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Slovenia vs Scotland?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.

Who will win Slovenia vs Scotland?

On our numbers Slovenia have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Scotland 42%.

How many goals will there be in Slovenia vs Scotland?

We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Slovenia vs Scotland?

Our predicted score is Slovenia 1–1 Scotland, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.

When is Slovenia vs Scotland?

Slovenia vs Scotland (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Stožice Stadium.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Slovenia v Scotland: numbers & prediction