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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Kazakhstan v Moldova: numbers & prediction

UEFA Nations League · Europe · Astana Arena

Kazakhstan

LDLDW
1–2
FT

Moldova

DLDDL
Kazakhstan 64%Draw 21%Moldova 15% Expected goals 1.63 – 0.62
85%
Betarazi pick

Kazakhstan or draw

Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗

10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1

Value bet: Kazakhstan to win @ 1.83 – our chance 64% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Picks by market

ResultKazakhstan to win ✗64% · @1.83
Double chanceKazakhstan or draw ✗85% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.54

Kazakhstan vs Moldova: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Kazakhstan welcome Moldova to Astana Arena for a UEFA Nations League fixture on Friday 2 October (15:00 WAT). In the table, Kazakhstan are 4th on 2 points after 4 matches; Moldova are 3rd with 4. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.

Current form

Kazakhstan, last 5: LDLDW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Slovakia, away. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.

Moldova, last 5: DLDDL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Faroe Islands, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.

Momentum favours Kazakhstan, collecting 1.3 points per game to 0.5 for Moldova.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Kazakhstan 1.6 xG, Moldova 0.6 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 39%, GG 52%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Kazakhstan 64%, draw 21%, Moldova 15%.
  • Lower-risk option: Kazakhstan or draw (85%) at 1.20.
  • GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.95.
  • Price worth noting: Kazakhstan to win @1.83 – the bookmaker implies 55%, our ratings say 64%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Kazakhstan or draw (85%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Kazakhstan 1–0 Moldova. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Kazakhstan64%fair 1.57 · @1.83
Draw21%fair 4.75 · @3.20
Moldova15%fair 6.55 · @4.20
2.25Expected goals
1.63Kazakhstan xG
0.62Moldova xG
52%Both score
39%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–017%
2–014%
1–111%
0–011%
2–19%
3–08%

From our goals model: Kazakhstan 1.6 – 0.6 Moldova expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultKazakhstan to win ✗64%1.571.83 ▲
Double chanceKazakhstan or draw ✗85%1.181.20
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓52%1.921.95
Draw no betKazakhstan (draw no bet) ✗81%1.24–
Asian handicapKazakhstan -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✗62%1.61–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓66%1.52–
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗61%1.64–
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81%1.24–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓92%1.08–
First team to scoreKazakhstan to score first ✗65%1.54–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗45%2.23–
Half-time / full-timeHT Kazakhstan / FT Kazakhstan ✗38%2.61–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9%11.54–

Recent results

Kazakhstan – last 6

LDLDWW
29 Sep@ Slovakia1–2L
26 Sep@ Faroe Islands1–1D
9 Jun@ Hungary1–3L
6 Jun@ Armenia1–1D
31 Marvs Comoros1–0W
25 Marvs Namibia2–0W
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Moldova – last 6

DLDDLL
29 Sepvs Faroe Islands1–1D
26 Sep@ Slovakia0–2L
9 Jun@ Armenia1–1D
5 Junvs Bulgaria2–2D
30 Mar@ Cyprus2–3L
26 Marvs Lithuania0–2L
1.0Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Kazakhstan and Moldova.

Kazakhstan vs Moldova head-to-head page →

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Slovakia4310+710
2Faroe Islands404004
3Moldova4112-54
4Kazakhstan4022-22

More UEFA Nations League predictions

League hub
FT Cyprus2 Armenia0 137%2.25X23%3.00240%3.00 1.2–1.3xG GGBoth teams to score 56%@1.75 ✗
FT Latvia1 Montenegro2 114%4.20X26%3.25260%1.80 0.7–1.8xG X2Montenegro or draw 86%@1.20 ✓
FT France1 Italy1 169%1.40X21%4.60210%6.00 1.8–0.5xG 1France to win 69%@1.40 ✗
FT Belgium3 Türkiye0 162%1.50X20%4.33218%5.00 1.6–0.7xG 1Belgium to win 62%@1.50 ✓
FT Hungary1 Georgia0 144%2.05X23%3.10233%3.40 0.3–0.2xG NGNot both teams to score 63%@1.85 ✓
FT Ukraine0 Northern Ireland3 160%1.85X27%3.10213%4.00 0.5–0.0xG 1XUkraine or draw 87%@1.22 ✗
FT Poland6 Romania0 161%1.50X24%3.90215%5.50 2.2–1.1xG 1Poland to win 61%@1.50 ✓
FT Bosnia & Herzegovina1 Sweden1 136%2.62X22%3.30242%2.40 1.6–1.7xG GGBoth teams to score 62%@1.57 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Kazakhstan vs Moldova?

Our pick is Kazakhstan or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.

Who will win Kazakhstan vs Moldova?

On our numbers Kazakhstan have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Moldova 15%.

How many goals will there be in Kazakhstan vs Moldova?

We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Kazakhstan vs Moldova?

Our predicted score is Kazakhstan 1–0 Moldova, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.

When is Kazakhstan vs Moldova?

Kazakhstan vs Moldova (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Friday 2 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Astana Arena.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.