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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Latvia v Montenegro: numbers & prediction

UEFA Nations League · Europe · Skonto

Latvia

DLLWW
1–2
FT

Montenegro

WWDWL
Latvia 14%Draw 26%Montenegro 60% Expected goals 0.74 – 1.76
86%
Betarazi pick

Montenegro or draw

Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓

10/10Rating
1.20Odds
2

Value bet: Montenegro to win @ 1.80 – our chance 60% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓

Picks by market

ResultMontenegro to win ✓60% · @1.80
Double chanceMontenegro or draw ✓86% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✓9% · fair 10.63

Latvia vs Montenegro: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Montenegro travel to face Latvia on Friday 2 October in the UEFA Nations League, with Skonto the venue – the ball rolls at 17:00 WAT. In the table, Latvia are 4th on 1 points after 4 matches; Montenegro are 1st with 10.

Current form

Latvia, last 5: DLLWW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Cyprus, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.4 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Montenegro, last 5: WWDWL Their latest outing: 3–2 win over Armenia, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately.

Momentum favours Montenegro, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.4 for Latvia.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Latvia 0.7 xG, Montenegro 1.8 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 51%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Latvia 14%, draw 26%, Montenegro 60%.
  • Lower-risk option: Montenegro or draw (86%) at 1.20.
  • GG/NG: GG (51%) at 2.00.
  • Price worth noting: Montenegro to win @1.80 – the bookmaker implies 56%, our ratings say 60%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Montenegro or draw (86%, odds 1.20 – longer than our fair 1.16, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Latvia 0–1 Montenegro. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Latvia14%fair 7.36 · @4.20
Draw26%fair 3.80 · @3.25
Montenegro60%fair 1.66 · @1.80
2.50Expected goals
0.74Latvia xG
1.76Montenegro xG
51%Both score
46%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

0–114%
0–213%
1–111%
1–29%
0–08%
0–37%

From our goals model: Latvia 0.7 – 1.8 Montenegro expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultMontenegro to win ✓60%1.661.80 ▲
Double chanceMontenegro or draw ✓86%1.161.20
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓51%1.962.00
Draw no betMontenegro (draw no bet) ✓82%1.23–
Asian handicapMontenegro -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓62%1.62–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓71%1.40–
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗54%1.84–
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76%1.32–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓89%1.12–
First team to scoreMontenegro to score first ✓65%1.55–
Half-time resultMontenegro ahead at half-time ✓43%2.31–
Half-time / full-timeHT Montenegro / FT Montenegro ✓39%2.59–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✓9%10.63–

Recent results

Latvia – last 5

DLLWW
28 Sepvs Cyprus0–0D
25 Sep@ Armenia0–2L
9 Junvs Faroe Islands0–1L
31 Marvs Gibraltar1–0W
26 Mar@ Gibraltar1–0W
0.4Scored / game
0.6Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5

Montenegro – last 6

WWDWLW
28 Sep@ Armenia3–2W
25 Sepvs Cyprus2–1W
5 Jun@ Slovakia2–2D
1 Jun@ Bulgaria1–0W
31 Marvs Slovenia2–3L
27 Marvs Andorra2–0W
2.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Latvia and Montenegro.

Latvia vs Montenegro head-to-head page →

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Montenegro4310+310
2Cyprus4211+27
3Armenia4112-14
4Latvia4013-41

More UEFA Nations League predictions

League hub
FT Kazakhstan1 Moldova2 164%1.83X21%3.20215%4.20 1.6–0.6xG 1XKazakhstan or draw 85%@1.20 ✗
FT Cyprus2 Armenia0 137%2.25X23%3.00240%3.00 1.2–1.3xG GGBoth teams to score 56%@1.75 ✗
FT France1 Italy1 169%1.40X21%4.60210%6.00 1.8–0.5xG 1France to win 69%@1.40 ✗
FT Belgium3 Türkiye0 162%1.50X20%4.33218%5.00 1.6–0.7xG 1Belgium to win 62%@1.50 ✓
FT Hungary1 Georgia0 144%2.05X23%3.10233%3.40 0.3–0.2xG NGNot both teams to score 63%@1.85 ✓
FT Ukraine0 Northern Ireland3 160%1.85X27%3.10213%4.00 0.5–0.0xG 1XUkraine or draw 87%@1.22 ✗
FT Poland6 Romania0 161%1.50X24%3.90215%5.50 2.2–1.1xG 1Poland to win 61%@1.50 ✓
FT Bosnia & Herzegovina1 Sweden1 136%2.62X22%3.30242%2.40 1.6–1.7xG GGBoth teams to score 62%@1.57 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Latvia vs Montenegro?

Our pick is Montenegro or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.

Who will win Latvia vs Montenegro?

On our numbers Latvia have a 14% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Montenegro 60%.

How many goals will there be in Latvia vs Montenegro?

We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Latvia vs Montenegro?

Our predicted score is Latvia 0–1 Montenegro, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.

When is Latvia vs Montenegro?

Latvia vs Montenegro (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Friday 2 October 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Skonto.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.