On Friday 2 October the UEFA Nations League brings France against Italy at Stade de France. Kick-off: 19:45 WAT. In the table, France are 1st on 10 points after 4 matches; Italy are 2nd with 7. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
France, last 5: WWLLW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Belgium, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Italy, last 5: WLWWW Their latest outing: 4–1 win over Türkiye, away. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.6 scored, 0.6 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give France 1.8 xG, Italy 0.5 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 39%, GG 52%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – France 69%, draw 21%, Italy 10%.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.57.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was France to win (69%, odds 1.40). Most likely score in line with that pick: France 1–0 Italy. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
France69%fair 1.44 · @1.40
Draw21%fair 4.76 · @4.60
Italy10%fair 10.44 · @6.00
2.25Expected goals
1.77France xG
0.48Italy xG
52%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–019%
2–017%
0–011%
3–010%
1–19%
2–18%
From our goals model: France 1.8 – 0.5 Italy expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
France to win✗
69%
1.44
1.40
Double chance
France or draw✓
90%
1.11
1.11
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.91
1.57
Draw no bet
France (draw no bet)
88%
1.14
–
Asian handicap
France -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
69%
1.45
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
92%
1.08
–
First team to score
France to score first
70%
1.42
–
Half-time result
France ahead at half-time✗
47%
2.12
–
Half-time / full-time
HT France / FT France✗
44%
2.28
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.65
–
Recent results
France – last 6
WWLLWW
28 Sep
@ Belgium
1–0
W
25 Sep
@ Türkiye
1–0
W
18 Jul
vs England
4–6
L
14 Jul
vs Spain
0–2
L
9 Jul
vs Morocco
2–0
W
4 Jul
@ Paraguay
1–0
W
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Italy – last 5
WLWWW
28 Sep
@ Türkiye
4–1
W
25 Sep
vs Belgium
0–2
L
7 Jun
@ Greece
1–0
W
3 Jun
@ Luxembourg
1–0
W
26 Mar
vs Northern Ireland
2–0
W
1.6Scored / game
0.6Conceded / game
20%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between France and Italy.
Our pick is France to win with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win France vs Italy?
On our numbers France have a 69% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Italy 10%.
How many goals will there be in France vs Italy?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for France vs Italy?
Our predicted score is France 1–0 Italy, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is France vs Italy?
France vs Italy (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Friday 2 October 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Stade de France.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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