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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Ukraine v Northern Ireland: numbers & prediction

UEFA Nations League · Europe · Štadión Antona Malatinského

Ukraine

DWWWL
0–3
FT

Northern Ireland

DWLWD
Ukraine 60%Draw 27%Northern Ireland 13% Expected goals 0.48 – 0.02
87%
Betarazi pick

Ukraine or draw

Very strong pick · fair odds 1.15 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗

10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1

Value bet: Ukraine to win @ 1.85 – our chance 60% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Picks by market

ResultUkraine to win ✗60% · @1.85
Double chanceUkraine or draw ✗87% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓60% · @1.70
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗29% · fair 3.43

Ukraine vs Northern Ireland: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

19:45 WAT, Friday 2 October: Ukraine v Northern Ireland in the UEFA Nations League, played at Štadión Antona Malatinského. In the table, Ukraine are 3rd on 4 points after 4 matches; Northern Ireland are 1st with 8.

Current form

Ukraine, last 5: DWWWL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Georgia, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.6 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.

Northern Ireland, last 5: DWLWD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Hungary, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Momentum favours Ukraine, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.3 for Northern Ireland.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Ukraine 0.5 xG, Northern Ireland 0.0 xG – a total near 0.5. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 99% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Ukraine 60%, draw 27%, Northern Ireland 13%.
  • Lower-risk option: Ukraine or draw (87%) at 1.22.
  • GG/NG: NG (60%) at 1.70.
  • Price worth noting: Ukraine to win @1.85 – the bookmaker implies 54%, our ratings say 60%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Ukraine or draw (87%, odds 1.22 – longer than our fair 1.15, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Ukraine 0–0 Northern Ireland. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Ukraine60%fair 1.67 · @1.85
Draw27%fair 3.73 · @3.10
Northern Ireland13%fair 7.46 · @4.00
0.50Expected goals
0.48Ukraine xG
0.02Northern Ireland xG
40%Both score
1%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

0–061%
1–029%
2–07%
0–11%
3–01%
1–11%

From our goals model: Ukraine 0.5 – 0.0 Northern Ireland expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultUkraine to win ✗60%1.671.85 ▲
Double chanceUkraine or draw ✗87%1.151.22 ▲
Both teams to scoreNot both teams to score ✓60%1.661.70
Draw no betUkraine (draw no bet) ✗82%1.22–
Asian handicapNorthern Ireland +0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓62%1.60–
Over/under 1.5 goalsUnder 1.5 goals ✗91%1.10–
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗99%1.01–
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓100%1.00–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓100%1.00–
First team to scoreNo goal ✗61%1.65–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗80%1.24–
Half-time / full-timeHT Draw / FT Draw ✗61%1.64–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗29%3.43–

Recent results

Ukraine – last 5

DWWWL
28 Sep@ Georgia0–0D
25 Sep@ Hungary1–0W
31 May@ Poland2–0W
31 Marvs Albania1–0W
26 Marvs Sweden1–3L
1.0Scored / game
0.6Conceded / game
20%Both scored
20%Over 2.5

Northern Ireland – last 6

DWLWDL
28 Sepvs Hungary0–0D
25 Sep@ Georgia1–0W
8 Jun@ France1–3L
4 Junvs Guinea1–0W
31 Mar@ Wales1–1D
26 Mar@ Italy0–2L
0.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Ukraine and Northern Ireland.

Ukraine vs Northern Ireland head-to-head page →

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Northern Ireland4220+48
2Hungary4211+17
3Ukraine4112-34
4Georgia4022-22

More UEFA Nations League predictions

League hub
FT Kazakhstan1 Moldova2 164%1.83X21%3.20215%4.20 1.6–0.6xG 1XKazakhstan or draw 85%@1.20 ✗
FT Cyprus2 Armenia0 137%2.25X23%3.00240%3.00 1.2–1.3xG GGBoth teams to score 56%@1.75 ✗
FT Latvia1 Montenegro2 114%4.20X26%3.25260%1.80 0.7–1.8xG X2Montenegro or draw 86%@1.20 ✓
FT France1 Italy1 169%1.40X21%4.60210%6.00 1.8–0.5xG 1France to win 69%@1.40 ✗
FT Belgium3 Türkiye0 162%1.50X20%4.33218%5.00 1.6–0.7xG 1Belgium to win 62%@1.50 ✓
FT Hungary1 Georgia0 144%2.05X23%3.10233%3.40 0.3–0.2xG NGNot both teams to score 63%@1.85 ✓
FT Poland6 Romania0 161%1.50X24%3.90215%5.50 2.2–1.1xG 1Poland to win 61%@1.50 ✓
FT Bosnia & Herzegovina1 Sweden1 136%2.62X22%3.30242%2.40 1.6–1.7xG GGBoth teams to score 62%@1.57 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Ukraine vs Northern Ireland?

Our pick is Ukraine or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.

Who will win Ukraine vs Northern Ireland?

On our numbers Ukraine have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Northern Ireland 13%.

How many goals will there be in Ukraine vs Northern Ireland?

We expect about 0.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 1% likely and both teams score 40% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Ukraine vs Northern Ireland?

Our predicted score is Ukraine 0–0 Northern Ireland, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 0.5 goals in total.

When is Ukraine vs Northern Ireland?

Ukraine vs Northern Ireland (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Friday 2 October 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Štadión Antona Malatinského.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.